Journal article
Estimating Extreme Quantiles of the Maximum Surface Air Temperatures for the Sir Seretse Khama International Airport Using the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution
Research Areas Currently no objects available |
Publication Details Author list: Thuto Mothupi, Wilson Moseki Thupeng, Baitshephi Mashabe, Botho Mokoto Publication year: 2016 Journal: American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics Volume number: 5 Issue number: 6 Start page: 365 End page: 375 Number of pages: 11 ISSN: 2326-8999 eISSN: 2326-9006 |
In this paper, extremes of quarterly maximum surface air temperature are modelled by employing the block maxima approach to extreme value analysis. The aim of the paper is to predict the future behaviour of the quarterly maximum surface air temperatures by estimating their high quantiles using the generalized extreme value distribution, an extreme value distribution usually used to model block maxima. The data are derived from monthly maximum surface air temperatures recorded at the SSSK International Airport Weather Station from January 1985 to December 2015. The Jarque-Bera normality test is performed on the data, and shows that the quarterly maximum temperatures do not follow a normal distribution. The Seasonal Mann-Kendall test detects no monotonic trends for the quarterly maximum temperatures. The Kwiatkowski- PhillipsSchmidt-Shin test indicates that the data are stationary. Parameter values of the generalized extreme value distribution are estimated using the method of maximum likelihood, and both the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Darling goodness of fit tests show that the distribution gives a reasonable fit to the quarterly maximum surface air temperatures. Estimates of the Tyear return levels for the return periods 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 110 and 120 years reveal that the surface air temperature for the SSK International Airport will be increasing over the next 120 years.
Projects
Currently no objects available
Currently no objects available |
Documents
Currently no objects available